NOAA’s CPC (Climate Prediction Center) issued this statement last week:
There is an approximately 50-60% chance of El Niño conditions during the next two months, with ENSO-neutral favored thereafter.
If this proves to be inaccurate, it may be because the forecast models are based on bad data.
Hackers from China breached the federal weather network recently, forcing cybersecurity teams to seal off data vital to disaster planning, aviation, shipping and scores of other crucial uses, officials said.
I know we’re getting unusual amounts of rain here in Southern California; whether that constitutes a true El Nino event remains to be seen.